Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has doubled the target price for SanDisk from $140 to $280, maintaining a "buy" rating, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics driven by NAND supply shortages and increased pricing power [1][3]. Financial Performance - SanDisk reported Q3 2025 revenue of $2.31 billion with a gross margin of 29.9%, and Non-GAAP EPS of $1.22, exceeding market expectations [3]. - The guidance for Q4 2025 includes a revenue midpoint of $2.60 billion, a gross margin midpoint of 42.0%, and a Non-GAAP EPS midpoint of $3.20, reflecting strong growth potential [3][7]. Industry Dynamics - The demand for high-end memory, particularly from AI servers, is driving manufacturers to prioritize production of high-margin DDR5 and HBM, leading to a squeeze on consumer-grade NAND and DDR4 supplies [5]. - Reports indicate a 50% increase in NAND contract prices in November, with DRAM prices up 171.8% year-over-year, highlighting significant supply constraints [5]. Valuation Adjustments - Goldman Sachs raised SanDisk's normalized EPS forecast from $7.80 to $14.00 and adjusted the valuation multiple from 18x to 20x, resulting in the target price doubling [7]. - Future EPS estimates have been significantly increased, with 2025 projected at $4.86 (up from $2.88), 2026 at $19.00 (up from $10.35), and 2027 at $23.25 (up from $12.57) [7]. Market Sentiment - The combination of SanDisk's strong performance, rising market prices, and Goldman Sachs' target price increase creates a positive feedback loop, enhancing the outlook for the NAND sector [11]. - The current market environment is characterized by tight supply leading to price increases, which in turn boosts profit margins and supports higher valuations [11].
高盛调高闪迪目标价，NAND供不应求，推动定价力与利润增长