AMD(US:AMD) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-12 23:00Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in the US stock market experienced a significant rally, driven by optimistic forecasts for AI and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to weak employment data [1][2][3]. Semiconductor Sector Performance - Major US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.76%, Nasdaq up 0.14%, and S&P 500 up 0.31%. The semiconductor sector led the gains, with AMD rising over 7%, GlobalFoundries up over 5%, and other companies like Broadcom, Marvell Technology, ON Semiconductor, Micron Technology, and TSMC all increasing by over 1% [2]. - European markets also showed strength, with major indices like the Euro Stoxx 50, CAC40, and DAX30 all rising over 1% [2]. AI Market Outlook - AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, provided a positive outlook for the AI market, predicting that the global AI chip market will reach $1 trillion by 2030, up from approximately $200 billion this year, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% [3]. - AMD aims to capture a "double-digit" market share in the AI data center chip market, with projected annual revenue from this segment reaching $100 billion within five years and profits expected to double by 2030 [3]. Morgan Stanley's Analysis - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the semiconductor upcycle driven by AI is far from peaking, with expectations that it will extend until 2027 [4]. - Global semiconductor revenue is forecasted to grow by 18% in 2026 and 11% in 2027 [5]. Factors Supporting Semiconductor Growth - The current semiconductor upcycle is characterized as a "K-shaped recovery," with strong demand for AI-related products while other tech sectors face adjustments [6]. - The trajectory of this semiconductor recovery resembles earlier phases of smartphone and public cloud growth, with significant potential for continued growth in generative AI [6]. - Leading cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to maintain strong capital expenditures, with a projected 67% increase in 2025 and around 32% growth in 2026 [7]. - Supply constraints in key areas are anticipated to persist until 2026, prolonging the semiconductor upcycle [7]. NAND Flash Supply Dynamics - Major NAND flash manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia, have reduced supply in the second half of the year to drive price increases, with predictions of a 20% to 30% price hike for NAND contracts in Q4 [8]. - The shift towards quad-level cell (QLC) technology due to AI demand is expected to further decrease NAND flash production [8].