招商研究 | 招闻天下1113

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the sectors with sufficient supply clearance and potential investment opportunities, focusing on resource products, consumer goods, traditional manufacturing, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and the new energy industry [4][5][6]. Supply Clearance - Sectors with significant supply clearance include: 1) Resource products benefiting from anti-involution: chemicals (coal chemicals, polyurethane, non-metallic materials), building materials (cement products, waterproof materials), non-ferrous metals (copper, lithium), coke, and iron ore [4]. 2) Small consumer goods in the consumption sector: dairy products, pet food, pig farming, snacks, and branded cosmetics, as well as the real estate chain (home textiles, home furnishings, personal care small appliances, lighting equipment) and medical beauty consumables [4]. 3) Traditional equipment manufacturing: motorcycles, distribution equipment, inverters, commercial vehicles, printing and packaging machinery, instruments, and power transmission and transformation equipment [4]. 4) Certain electronic hardware: integrated circuit manufacturing, analog chip design, optical components, semiconductor materials, and LEDs [4]. 5) Pharmaceuticals: vaccines, traditional Chinese medicine, and raw materials [4]. 6) New energy industry chain: silicon materials, batteries, photovoltaic processing equipment, wind power generation, as well as gold, gas, and dyeing [4]. Inventory Decrease - Industries experiencing accelerated inventory reduction and marginal improvement in gross margins are expected to see high performance elasticity and certainty, including: chlor-alkali, fluorochemical, special steel, modified plastics, membrane materials, and various consumer goods [5]. - Industries with continued supply clearance and declining inventory are likely to witness a profit turning point, such as chemicals (soda ash, organic silicon, polyurethane), coking coal, thermal coal, and glass manufacturing [5]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with accelerated supply clearance and low inventory, such as polyurethane, vaccines, dairy products, residential development, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6]. - It also suggests sectors with continued contraction and improving gross margins, including branded cosmetics, plastic packaging, pre-processed foods, and various resource products [6]. Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing fluctuations, but this presents investment opportunities due to expected recognition of various positive factors [7]. - Key catalysts include continuous innovation in China's technology sector, easing US-China relations, and the gradual implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8]. Liquidity and Valuation - Continuous net inflow of foreign and southbound funds is noted, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue lowering interest rates, which may further boost liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [8][9]. - The report emphasizes that the combination of fundamentals, policies, and liquidity will support a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, which is currently undervalued [8][9]. Configuration Strategy - The report advocates a "barbell strategy" focusing on offensive sectors (technology and non-ferrous metals) and defensive sectors (turnaround and dividend stocks) [9][10]. - The offensive focus includes the AI industry chain and non-ferrous metals, while the defensive focus targets essential consumer goods and high-dividend strategies [9][10].