供应端扰动逐步消退 市场关注点转向需求

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound in lithium carbonate prices has brought the energy storage industry back into focus, with futures prices reaching a peak of 88,200 yuan/ton before entering a range-bound fluctuation [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of November 12, lithium carbonate futures for the 2601 contract closed at 86,580 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.21% [1] - The current price fluctuations are attributed to a combination of news and demand-side factors, with supply-side sentiment disturbances gradually dissipating [1] - The release of a report on mining rights in Jiangxi Province, which valued the transfer at 247 million yuan, has contributed to a stabilization of market sentiment, despite the actual resumption of mining operations being uncertain until 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The focus in the lithium carbonate market has shifted from supply-side issues to demand-side factors, with analysts noting a significant improvement in the fundamentals [2] - As of the week ending November 6, lithium carbonate weekly production was approximately 21,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 454 tons, while weekly inventory decreased by over 3,400 tons to about 124,000 tons, indicating a faster pace of inventory reduction [2] - The increase in downstream orders for energy storage batteries has exceeded expectations, contributing to a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate rising nearly 90% in the past month [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that the price trend of lithium carbonate will be primarily driven by demand factors, with the supply side capable of responding to market changes in a relatively short time [2] - Current market conditions indicate that the industry may continue to deplete inventory until the end of the year, with strong performance in futures markets expected to persist [3] - Despite positive fundamentals, high prices may impact downstream demand, necessitating caution regarding potential price corrections due to demand declines [3]