张尧浠：更大降息周期前景升温？金价5000美元仍可觊觎

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with potential targets of $4250 and $4400 per ounce, and even a long-term goal of $5000 per ounce as the market anticipates a larger interest rate cut cycle [1][5]. Market Performance - On November 12, gold opened at $4127.21 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4098.72, and then rallied to a high of $4211.37, closing at $4195.22, marking a daily increase of $68.01 or 1.65% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $112.65, indicating significant volatility within the session [1]. Economic Influences - The market is reacting to expectations of economic data releases following the U.S. government resuming operations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [3]. - The unexpected retirement announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic and geopolitical tensions, such as the lack of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, have heightened risk aversion, contributing to gold's price increase [3][5]. Future Expectations - Despite potential short-term fluctuations due to the dollar's performance and legislative actions regarding government funding, the overall sentiment for gold remains bullish [3][5]. - The anticipated release of U.S. economic data, including CPI and unemployment claims, is expected to maintain a bullish trend for gold, with targets set at $4250 and higher [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate that gold has found support at the 10-week moving average and is poised for further upward movement, with potential targets of $4345 and $4500 [7]. - Daily indicators suggest that while there may be short-term corrections, the overall trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at $4260 and $4300 [9]. Broader Implications - The potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve member by Trump could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, further supporting gold prices [5]. - The ongoing discussion around significant interest rate cuts suggests that gold may continue to experience upward momentum, with the $5000 target remaining within reach [5].