Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-13 01:40Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current sales of fat pigs and piglets are in a state of loss, with expectations of continued low-price fluctuations in the pork market due to increasing supply pressure in the industry [1][2] - The price of pork has fallen below the cost line, leading to comprehensive losses in the industry, with the national average price dropping below 11 yuan/kg after the National Day holiday, marking a yearly low [1][2] - The decline in piglet prices has accelerated, with losses per piglet expected to exceed 100 yuan, reflecting pessimistic expectations among farmers regarding future prices [1][2] Group 2 - The current pig cycle is at a bottoming stage, with significant supply pressure expected in the first half of 2026, as the number of breeding sows has increased to 40.43 million, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth [2][3] - The industry is likely to experience accelerated capacity reduction due to losses, with policy and winter disease factors being crucial for future breeding sow capacity [3] - Overall, the industry is expected to see a moderate growth in pig output in 2026, with a slight decline in average prices, while quality breeding enterprises may still maintain profitability throughout the year [3]