尿素 供应持续增长

Group 1 - Urea prices have been weak this year, with production profits for fixed-bed and natural gas-based urea at -210 CNY/ton and -167 CNY/ton respectively [1] - Since mid-October, urea prices have started to rise due to news from Indian tenders, but high inventory levels in urea plants limit the potential for price rebounds [1] - From January to September 2025, China's urea production reached 53.18 million tons, an increase of 4.31 million tons or 8.1% year-on-year, with daily operating rates at 85.15%, up 3.58 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The urea industry has experienced severe overcapacity after years of rapid growth, leading to significant losses for companies [2] - The government has implemented supply-side structural reforms, eliminating 16.22 million tons of urea capacity during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - New capacity additions are planned for the coming years, with 394,000 tons in 2024, 380,000 tons in 2025, 688,000 tons in 2026, and 590,000 tons in 2027, resulting in an average annual production growth of about 5% [2] Group 3 - In 2024, domestic controls on urea exports will be strengthened, with a complete suspension of exports in the second half of the year [3] - The export policy is expected to remain unchanged, with a limited and orderly export model, and the total export volume is anticipated to be constrained [3] - Overall demand growth for urea is expected to remain around 3%, while production growth is projected at approximately 5%, leading to excess supply that needs to be managed through exports [3]