Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-13 02:05Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights the potential for an upward revision in the prosperity expectations of the phosphorus industry chain, driven by the rapid growth in energy storage demand [1] Group 1: Energy Storage Demand and Phosphorus Market - The development of the energy storage industry is significantly increasing the demand for phosphorus resources, making it a crucial component in the energy transition [1] - In the first half of 2025, global energy storage battery shipments exceeded 260 GWh, with projections suggesting a total of over 500 GWh for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 60% [1] - Phosphate iron lithium batteries account for about 95% of energy storage batteries, leading to an estimated demand for around 1.2 million tons of phosphate iron lithium in 2025 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about the phosphorus market primarily stem from fears of oversupply following a peak in 2021, but the current supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight [2] - The pricing power on the supply side is strengthening, which is expected to maintain a tight balance in the phosphorus market [2] - The report suggests that the supply of phosphorus will be released in an orderly manner, alleviating fears of a systemic reversal in the supply-demand balance [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for the Phosphorus Industry - The upward revision of the phosphorus industry chain's prosperity expectations is anticipated due to the significant demand from the energy storage sector, which is expected to surpass traditional agricultural demand [3] - If energy storage growth exceeds expectations, the future prosperity curve for phosphorus could see further upward adjustments [3] - The midstream material segment's operating rates are also expected to improve, with recent increases in industry operating rates indicating a potential recovery [3]