美国政府“重启”，对全球金融市场影响几何？

Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is coming to an end as the House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill [1][4][6] - The bill will allow the government to reopen at least until the end of January [1] - However, the underlying issues, particularly regarding the Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, remain unresolved, indicating potential future shutdown risks [2][3][5] Government Operations - The government has been shut down for 43 days, marking a record duration [8] - The reopening process will take several days, with some agencies potentially taking a week or longer to resume normal operations [14] - Key issues include updating payroll systems to compensate for unpaid work during the shutdown and clearing backlogs in funding, loan applications, and customer service [15] Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the six-week shutdown will reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion [9] - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions, including unpaid federal employees, stalled public services, and increased flight delays [9] Market Reactions - Historically, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 2.3% increase in the month following the end of a government shutdown [17] - Analysts suggest that the market may experience a delayed correction after the shutdown ends, with the potential for the S&P 500 to approach 7000 points by mid-December [17] - Concerns remain about the impact of the shutdown on upcoming employment data and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions [17] Sector-Specific Insights - The airline industry is expected to face challenges in quickly restoring flight capacity, with estimates indicating a daily economic impact of $285 million to $580 million due to reduced flight operations [16] - In the commodities market, the anticipated reopening of the government may alleviate concerns over dollar liquidity, leading to a stabilization in gold prices [18]