现货黄金盘中最高突破4209美元/盎司，美联储降息预期升温推高金价，上海金ETF(518600)重回升势，盘中上涨1.39%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with spot gold reaching $4185 per ounce, peaking at $4209 per ounce, marking a nearly 60% increase year-to-date since November 6 [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown, a weak job market, and rising geopolitical risks, which have led to increased bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - Recent data indicates that the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has seen a net inflow of approximately 11.3 million yuan, with a total of 14.1 million yuan over the last five trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [2] Group 2 - Since 1996, gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds in central bank reserves, indicating a shift towards gold as a safer asset amid concerns over global reserve security [2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that central banks and consumers will remain reliable buyers during price declines, predicting gold prices will exceed $5000 per ounce by Q4 2026 [2] - Standard Chartered continues to expect an average gold price of $4000 per ounce in Q4 of this year, indicating a bullish outlook for gold [2]