2025年不卖房，5年后房子是“黄金价”还是“大葱价”？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase since 2022, with both second and first-tier cities experiencing price declines, leading to uncertainty about future property values by 2025 [1][3][5] Market Trends - As of September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities nationwide is 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, marking 41 consecutive months of month-on-month price declines [1] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have not lifted purchase restrictions, while most other cities have fully relaxed such policies, alongside banks reducing mortgage rates to below 3.5% and down payment ratios to 15% [3] Policy Responses - Various market stimulus policies have been implemented, including tax reductions on property purchases to alleviate buyer pressure, indicating that nearly all available measures have been utilized [3] Diverging Opinions on Future Prices - Some analysts believe that the current price decline is temporary and that the market will stabilize and enter a growth phase, predicting that properties will be worth "golden prices" in five years [3] - Conversely, others argue that factors such as an aging population, nearing the end of urbanization, and a tightening financial environment will lead to reduced housing demand, resulting in properties becoming "cheap as scallions" [5][7] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by a significant imbalance in property ownership, with a few individuals holding multiple properties while many first-time buyers remain unable to afford homes, suggesting a persistent bubble [5][7] - The potential for increased property listings due to investors selling off excess holdings could further pressure prices downward, reinforcing the likelihood of properties becoming more affordable [7] Regional Price Differentiation - There is an expectation of price divergence, with core areas in first-tier cities potentially seeing price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities may experience significant devaluation due to population outflows and limited economic diversity [9] - Notably, average price declines in first-tier city centers have exceeded 30%, with specific areas like Shanghai's Minhang District seeing price drops of up to 50% [9]