全球媒体聚焦 | 路透社：政府停摆结束不会消除美国经济迷雾

Core Insights - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is expected to end, leading to the release of official economic data, although this data may not be entirely reliable [1][4] Economic Data Release - Delayed data is anticipated to be released gradually, with Morgan Stanley economists predicting the September non-farm payroll report may be published shortly after the shutdown ends, as the data has already been collected [4] - The release of October data will take longer and may lack critical indicators such as the unemployment rate, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [4][9] Employment Trends - Current U.S. employment data is concerning, with Goldman Sachs economists estimating a decrease of 50,000 in non-farm payrolls for October, marking the second monthly decline since December 2020 and the largest drop in over five years [4] - A report from a job placement company indicated that planned layoffs in October exceeded 150,000, the highest level for that month since 2003 [4] Federal Reserve Implications - The incomplete and potentially unreliable official employment and other data may lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts [9] - CPI and consumer data are also expected to be unclear, with Morgan Stanley economists suggesting that October CPI and consumption data may not be available before the Fed's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 [9] Inflation Data Concerns - UBS economists expressed pessimism regarding the release of the October CPI data, which was scheduled for November 13, as the Labor Statistics Bureau was closed for the entire month, resulting in no price data collection [12] - The October CPI data is crucial for calculating subsequent months' inflation indices, meaning that inflation data for November, December, and even April of the following year could be distorted [12] - There is a possibility that the October unemployment rate and CPI data may never be accurately published due to partial or complete data collection failures [12]