Ge Long Hui·2025-11-13 05:29Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant rally, with major stocks and ETFs showing substantial gains, driven by a surge in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices and a mismatch between supply and demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - New Zhuo Bang stock increased by over 17%, while Enjie and Tianci Materials reached their daily limit, and Multi Fluor rose by over 9% [1]. - Chemical ETFs, including Chemical ETF, Chemical Leader ETF, and Chemical 50 ETF, have all risen by over 3.5%, with year-to-date gains of 38% [1][2]. - The estimated scale of Chemical ETF is 2.922 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 38.88% [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged, with some market quotes reaching 150,000 yuan per ton, doubling from mid-October [2][3]. - Manufacturers are reluctant to sell, with some halting external quotes and requiring cash payments or prepayments from smaller clients [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The core reason for the price surge is a supply-demand mismatch, with explosive growth in downstream demand and a contraction in supply due to the exit of many small enterprises [3]. - Chemical ETFs focus on key sectors within the chemical industry, including chemical raw materials (28.7%), chemical products (25.1%), and agricultural chemical products (23.4%) [3]. - Analysts suggest that core chemical assets are likely to see profit and valuation recovery, as prices are at a low point and leading companies have strong safety margins [4]. Group 4: Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to experience a bottoming out of most sub-sectors, with potential upward trends in certain areas due to reduced capacity growth and government policies [4]. - There is a growing emphasis on new materials and domestic production in response to international trade tensions and foreign monopolies in high-end materials [4]. - The industry is anticipated to transition from a cash-consuming model to one that generates significant cash flow, enhancing potential dividend yields [5].