Ge Long Hui·2025-11-13 05:29Core Viewpoint - Despite the drag from the national subsidy baseline on the electric product category, the strong seasonal demand for food delivery is expected to enhance traffic synergy for the main platform, leading to a positive outlook for JD Retail's performance in Q3 [1] JD Retail Performance - JD Retail is projected to achieve revenue of 248.67 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, primarily driven by increased traffic from the food delivery peak season, although partially offset by the national subsidy policy [1] - The GMV is expected to continue its double-digit growth trend, with 1P GMV slowing due to the national subsidy baseline impact, while 3P GMV is anticipated to maintain high double-digit growth [1] Profitability Outlook - JD Retail's operating profit for Q3 is expected to reach 13.67 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 5.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.34% due to improved traffic from food delivery synergy [2] - The overall performance of JD Retail is expected to remain stable, with short-term growth driven by the synergy effects from food delivery [2] New Business and Logistics - The new business segment is projected to generate revenue of 12.87 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 158.9%, although it will incur an operating loss of 15.01 billion yuan [2] - JD Logistics is expected to achieve revenue of 49.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.1% and an operating profit of 2.44 billion yuan, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [2] Adjusted Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted to 1,331.2 billion yuan, 1,409.4 billion yuan, and 1,485.6 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 27.1 billion yuan, 43.8 billion yuan, and 52.5 billion yuan [3] - The target market value for the company is set at 554.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target share price of 190.96 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]