邓正红能源软实力：全球原油市场进入结构性过剩 石油软实力面临阶段性调整

Core Insights - The global oil market has entered a structural surplus phase, with supply exceeding demand by 500,000 barrels per day, primarily due to unexpected increases in U.S. oil production and OPEC's own production hikes [1][2][4] - The emergence of a contango structure in U.S. crude futures indicates high inventory levels and weak demand, reflecting market expectations of continued oversupply [1][3][4] - OPEC has revised its forecasts, predicting that global oil supply will match demand by 2026, contrasting with previous expectations of a supply shortfall [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC's latest report indicates a shift from a daily shortage of 400,000 barrels to a surplus of 500,000 barrels, driven by increased U.S. production and OPEC's accelerated output [4][5] - The recent contango in U.S. crude futures is the first occurrence since February, signaling market expectations of ongoing oversupply [2][4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its 2026 U.S. oil production forecast from 13.51 million barrels to 13.58 million barrels per day [3] Price Movements - International oil prices have dropped significantly, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling by $2.55 to $58.49 per barrel, a decline of 4.18%, and Brent crude down by $2.45 to $62.71 per barrel, a drop of 3.76% [2] - The lack of bullish catalysts and a calm geopolitical backdrop have opened up downward pressure on oil prices [3] Institutional Forecast Adjustments - OPEC has adjusted its third-quarter outlook from a supply deficit to a surplus due to higher-than-expected U.S. production and increased output from OPEC itself [2][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) now predicts that oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050, contradicting earlier forecasts that anticipated peak demand within this decade [3][4] Impact on Oil Soft Power - The supply surplus has weakened the ability of oil-producing countries to manage market expectations and reconfigure rules, diminishing their pricing power [5] - The prevailing market sentiment regarding oversupply has pressured oil prices downward, indicating limited effectiveness of OPEC's signals to manage expectations [5] - The industry is under increasing pressure to transition from resource dependency to value innovation, emphasizing the importance of technological and business model advancements [5][6] Future Trends in Soft Power Competition - The focus of competition in the oil industry is shifting towards the establishment of technical standards and carbon footprint management as key dimensions of soft power [6] - Changes in the structure of the crude futures market, such as contango, present opportunities for financial derivative innovations, allowing oil-producing countries to enhance their soft power through participation in financial rule-making [6] - Companies in the oil sector must balance short-term production adjustments with long-term strategic transformations to build more resilient business models in the face of ongoing supply surplus [6]