Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-13 05:42Core Viewpoint - The 2026 GDP growth target for China is set at around 5%, which is deemed necessary and feasible to stabilize investor confidence in Chinese assets and capital markets [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Huang Wentao, indicated that China's GDP growth is expected to reach around 5% next year due to policy support [1]. - The average GDP growth rate required from 2020 to 2035 to achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 is approximately 4.73% [1]. - The average GDP growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is above 5%, meeting the stage requirements [1]. Group 2: Export and External Demand - Huang noted that external demand remains resilient, with China's export performance in 2025 exceeding expectations, contributing over 30% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [2]. - If the trade agreements are effectively executed and non-U.S. economies continue to expand, the export growth rate in 2026 is expected to exceed expectations [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to diminish, with a projected slight narrowing of the decline in real estate development investment and new housing sales in 2026 [3]. - The decline in new housing sales is anticipated to be within 5%, reducing the negative drag on the economy [3]. Group 4: Policy Support and Consumer Recovery - There is ample room for policy support, with fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies expected to work in tandem in 2026 [3]. - The implementation of "two重" and "two新" policies is expected to continue, with an increase in support for service consumption and the expansion of trade-in policies for consumer goods [3]. - If fiscal policies align with consumer recovery efforts, consumption is projected to improve from its current low state [3].