美联储停止缩表+政府停摆结束：黄金上涨的“两大引擎”重启？

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, easing geopolitical tensions, tightening dollar liquidity, and profit-taking by long positions. Gold prices have rebounded as market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December increase, stabilizing investment demand [2][11]. Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown and Dollar Liquidity - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant selling pressure on gold, with COMEX gold futures dropping below $4000 per ounce, reaching a low of $3901.3 per ounce [2]. - The Federal Reserve's announcement to halt balance sheet reduction in December is expected to alleviate the low reserve issue in the U.S. banking system, where bank reserves fell below the "ample liquidity" threshold of $3.1 trillion, reaching $2.85 trillion by November 5 [3]. - The U.S. Congress passed a temporary funding bill on November 9, which is expected to end the government shutdown and reduce the fiscal liquidity siphoning effect [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Rate Cut Expectations - Economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with October's job cuts reaching the highest level for that month in nearly 20 years, increasing by 175.3% year-over-year [5]. - October's inflation data showed a mild increase, with the CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month, which is below market expectations and previous months, reinforcing the market's anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut [5][6]. - The Supreme Court's ruling on IEEPA tariffs may exacerbate the U.S. debt issue, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases are on the rise, with a reported 220 tons bought in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, reversing earlier declines [7]. - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, with total demand valued at $146 billion, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, which saw a historic high of $26 billion [7][8]. - The SPDR gold ETF's holdings rebounded to 1042.06 tons by November 10, after a drop to 1036.05 tons in late October due to selling pressure [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - The easing of dollar liquidity concerns and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted the macro narrative towards optimism, reducing the selling pressure on gold [11]. - Investors are advised to monitor COMEX gold options to hedge against increased volatility, with trading volumes reaching a historical high of 175,000 contracts [11].