Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-13 06:09Core Insights - The Chinese battery industry is experiencing a clear recovery point after nearly two years of adjustment, driven by strong demand from energy storage systems and commercial electric vehicles, leading to a comprehensive upward cycle in the industry [1] Group 1: Market Demand - Domestic energy storage battery sales reached 211 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 66%, with exports doubling to 71 GWh, reflecting robust market demand [2] - The growth in domestic demand is attributed to policy optimizations, including the cancellation of mandatory storage policies and the introduction of local independent storage subsidy policies, enhancing project investment returns [2] - New overseas energy storage orders for Chinese battery manufacturers reached 215 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 132%, with Europe, the Middle East, and Australia being the main growth sources [2] Group 2: Commercial Vehicle Growth - The commercial vehicle market has emerged as a significant growth driver, with battery installation for commercial vehicles reaching 92 GWh, a year-on-year surge of 136%, increasing its share of total electric vehicle battery installations from 11% to 19% [3] - The electricization of commercial vehicles is driven by improved supply-side discipline and price recovery, with leading battery suppliers nearing full production capacity [3] Group 3: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - The supply-side landscape is improving, with leading battery suppliers' capacity utilization nearing saturation and second-tier suppliers recovering to 50%-70% utilization [3] - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics has led to price increases across the battery supply chain, with battery cell prices rising by 3-4%, lithium carbonate prices up 14%, and prices for lithium iron phosphate and ternary cathode materials increasing by 9% and 19%, respectively [4] - Analysts expect the upward price trend to continue into the fourth quarter and next year, benefiting leading companies like CATL, Yunnan Enjie, and Ruipu Lanjun [4]