Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that Guming (01364) is a leading player in the domestic mid-range tea beverage market, with potential for stable growth driven by new product categories, store expansion, and cost reduction in raw materials [1] Company Overview - Guming ranks second in the ready-to-drink tea market nationwide and first in the mid-range segment as of the end of 2023, with 11,179 stores opened through franchising by the first half of 2025 [2] - The company offers a diverse range of ready-to-drink tea products priced between 10-18 yuan, along with newly launched fresh coffee products, successfully penetrating lower-tier markets [2] Competitive Advantages - Guming employs a robust expansion strategy, opening stores in regions where supply chain coverage exists, achieving over 500 stores in nine provinces, with 41% of stores located in towns away from city centers [2] - The company has one of the strongest cold chain systems among leading tea brands, capable of delivering fresh fruits and milk to lower-tier city stores every two days, covering 97% of its stores [2] Industry Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage industry is characterized by price differentiation, operational efficiency, and the integration of tea and coffee [3] - The market size for ready-to-drink tea is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan by 2035, driven by consumer demand for healthier and fresher products [3] Growth Prospects - The coffee business is expected to become a new growth engine, with over 8,000 stores covered by June 30, 2025, and low penetration in lower-tier cities [4] - Store expansion opportunities exist both in existing markets and untapped domestic and overseas markets, leveraging supply chain advantages [4] - There is significant potential for cost reduction in key agricultural raw materials, which may enhance profit margins as scale effects deepen [4]
华创证券：首予古茗(01364)“推荐”评级 目标价27.84港元