Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-13 06:14Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that China Resources Land (01109) will experience an absolute increase in stock price within the next 30 days, assigning an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 39.3, with an estimated probability of occurrence exceeding 80% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Strong mall operations have driven October same-store sales and rental income performance above expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, raising the cumulative rental growth for the first ten months of the year to 13% [1] - Despite a high base in the fourth quarter, same-store sales growth for the year is expected to maintain over 10%, with rental growth projected between 13% and 14% [1] - The contribution of recurring profits is anticipated to increase to approximately 50% of core earnings this year, compared to 41% in 2024, supported by better operational leverage [1] Group 2: Valuation Insights - Morgan Stanley's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method suggests that China Resources Land should receive a higher valuation, currently at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 times [1]