Workflow
国泰海通:CPI催化,白酒板块预期先行
Ge Long Hui·2025-11-13 06:45

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive signals released by the October CPI, with the core CPI year-on-year growth reaching the highest level since March 2024, indicating a continuous recovery in the service sector [1][2] - The October CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the highest year-on-year growth since February 2025, driven mainly by food, tobacco, and alcohol, as well as transportation and communication [2] - The white liquor industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with expectations of a recovery in financial reports and inventory levels within the next 2-3 quarters, as the third-quarter reports show a significant decline in revenue and net profit [2][3] Group 2 - The valuation of white liquor stocks is relatively low, with a high dividend yield, making them likely beneficiaries of a market style switch as the year-end approaches [3] - As of November 10, 2025, the food and beverage sector has faced significant adjustment pressure, with the current PE TTM for the food and beverage sector and white liquor at 17% and 23% percentiles since 2005, respectively [3] - The combined dividend yield for white liquor A+H shares has reached 3.74%, compared to 2.54% for the CSI 300 and 2.21% for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a relative advantage in absolute returns [3]