就业市场火热浇灭降息预期 澳洲联储料延长观望模式

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in October, down from 4.5% in September, indicating a tight labor market and supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates [1][2] - Employment increased by 42,200 jobs in October, all from full-time positions, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 20,000 [1] - The RBA's cautious stance on monetary policy is reinforced by the resilient labor market, which may reignite inflationary pressures [1][3] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The labor market remains tight, with high job vacancy rates and a significant proportion of businesses facing recruitment difficulties [3] - Consumer confidence has improved, with optimistic respondents outnumbering pessimistic ones for the first time in four years [3] - Housing loan volumes reached a record high in Q3, driven mainly by investor loans [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the employment data release, traders reduced expectations for RBA rate cuts next year, leading to a rise in the Australian dollar and a jump in three-year government bond yields [1][2] - The spread between three-year and ten-year government bond yields has narrowed due to expectations of reduced bond issuance this fiscal year [2] - The RBA forecasts the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% over the forecast period, with employment growth expected to slow in the coming years [2]