国内稀土见底，特朗普掏出杀手锏，一回头却发现中国早已做好准备

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have highlighted the critical dependence of the US on Chinese rare earth elements, particularly in military and semiconductor industries, as China implements export controls to protect its strategic interests [1][2][4]. Group 1: Rare Earth Elements - The US is facing a significant shortage of rare earth elements, with domestic stocks only sufficient for two to three months, raising concerns about delays in electric vehicle and missile projects [1][2]. - China controls over 90% of the global rare earth supply chain, with recent export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements directly targeting US vulnerabilities [1][2]. - The price of rare earths has increased by 8% following China's new regulations, indicating heightened market tension [2][4]. Group 2: US Response and Industry Impact - The US has attempted to counteract China's dominance by suspending exports of critical components, such as the LEAP-1C engine for the C919 aircraft, which has reduced delivery plans from 50 to 25 units [6]. - The US government has also restricted sales of semiconductor design software to Chinese companies, significantly impacting their research and development timelines [8]. - Major US defense contractors, like Lockheed Martin, are exploring alternative materials due to the supply chain risks posed by China's export controls, but performance has reportedly decreased by over 20% [2][4]. Group 3: China's Strategic Position - China's rare earth industry, exemplified by the performance of Ganzhou Rare Earth Group, has shown resilience with a production output of 240,000 tons in the first half of the year, maintaining a complete supply chain from mining to refining [2]. - The Chinese government is prioritizing approvals for EU companies in its rare earth export policies, indicating a strategic pivot towards strengthening ties with Europe while sidelining the US [10]. - The CJ-1000A engine, developed by China, is expected to meet the needs of the C919 aircraft and is on track for certification, showcasing China's advancements in aviation technology despite US sanctions [10][11]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The US's sanctions may inadvertently accelerate China's innovation in both rare earth and aviation sectors, as China continues to solidify its market position and technological capabilities [11]. - The US's efforts to rebuild its supply chains are projected to take several years, during which time China's production lines remain active, further entrenching its competitive advantage [11].