华龙证券：25Q3乘用车业绩分化 市场年底前有望迎来抢购潮

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing mixed performance, with passenger vehicles showing revenue growth but declining profits, while commercial vehicles and parts suppliers are benefiting from improved fundamentals and new product launches [1][2][3]. Passenger Vehicles - In Q3 2025, the passenger vehicle sector achieved a revenue growth of 7.4% year-on-year, which is lower than the consolidated sales growth of 14.4%, primarily due to a price war that led to a decrease in average selling price by 0.99 million yuan per vehicle [2]. - The sector's net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.49 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [2]. - New product launches and a shift towards high-end models are driving revenue growth for car manufacturers, with companies like Xpeng Motors and Leap Motor seeing rapid sales growth due to low base effects and significant new vehicle releases [2]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market is showing continuous improvement, with significant sales growth since June 2025, contributing to a recovery in sector valuations [1]. - The heavy truck segment reported a revenue of 108 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, with net profit rising 55.3% to 3.84 billion yuan [5]. - The bus segment also performed well, with a revenue increase of 30.6% year-on-year, driven by higher single-vehicle income [4]. Auto Parts - The auto parts sector achieved a revenue of 368.37 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 10.4% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 22.6% to 19.64 billion yuan [3]. - Nearly 80% of auto parts companies reported revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong terminal sales and effective cost control measures [3]. - The introduction of several key new models in the passenger vehicle market is expected to boost the performance of core suppliers in the supply chain [3]. Recommendations - Companies in a strong new product cycle such as Great Wall Motors, Seres, SAIC Motor, and Xpeng Motors are recommended for attention [6]. - Strong supply chain players and those involved in humanoid robotics and intelligent driving, such as Longsun Technology and Joyson Electronics, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]. - For commercial vehicles, leading companies like Weichai Power and Yutong Bus are suggested as beneficiaries of the industry's recovery [6].