未来的世界会怎样？从风险预警到全球秩序重构丨两说

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The current global economic landscape is characterized by significant challenges such as slowing growth, fiscal vulnerabilities, and increasing macro-financial risks due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, technological revolutions, and climate change [1][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decline in global economic growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook despite being higher than previous predictions [4] Group 2: Systemic Risks in the Global Economy - Martin Wolf highlights three areas of vulnerability that require attention: the fragility of the financial system, the instability of political order, and ecological vulnerabilities, which together exacerbate systemic risks in the global economy [6][7] - The sustainability of U.S. government debt is a critical concern, with potential implications for market stability if debt levels rise to 140%-150% of GDP, which could lead to a crisis in the U.S. dollar system [7] Group 3: Political and Ecological Vulnerabilities - The long-term shift in U.S. policy towards protectionism and populism is seen as a permanent feature that will significantly impact global economic development, necessitating countries to devise their own strategies for cooperation [9] - Climate change remains a pressing global issue, with the need for international collaboration on technology sharing and funding to ensure progress in decarbonization efforts, particularly emphasizing China's role as the largest carbon emitter [11] Group 4: Globalization and Trade Dynamics - Despite facing setbacks, globalization is expected to continue progressing, albeit with a potential decline in commodity trade, and the global monetary landscape may shift towards a multipolar structure, diminishing the dominance of the U.S. dollar [14]