国信证券：纺织制造25Q4订单有望修复 看好运动户外赛道长期成长性

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs is gradually diminishing in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders. Nike's latest quarterly performance exceeded market expectations, signaling a recovery point, which is expected to improve supplier outlooks [1][5]. Brand Apparel Insights - In September, the retail sales of clothing increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth acceleration of 1.6 percentage points [1]. - E-commerce performance in October showed positive trends across all categories, with outdoor products leading growth. Year-on-year growth rates for various categories included: sports apparel at 0%, outdoor apparel at +19%, leisure apparel at 0%, home textiles at +1%, and personal care at +2% [2]. - Leading brands in sports apparel growth included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [2]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, October saw a year-on-year decline in textile exports from China (-9.1%) and Vietnam (-1.0%), with apparel and footwear exports from China down by 16.0% and 21.0% respectively. However, PMI indices for Indonesia, India, and Vietnam showed increases, indicating a stable manufacturing environment [3]. - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies are optimistic about future revenue, with orders visibility extending to six months for certain firms. Companies like Yu Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see order recovery in Q4, with companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group positioned to benefit from tariff stability and Nike's recovery [5][6]. - In the brand apparel sector, the long-term growth potential of the sports and outdoor segment is highlighted, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, as well as non-sport brands benefiting from a "brand upward" strategy [6].