Ultima Markets：美国政府停摆接近结束，市场关注滞后数据

Group 1 - The agreement officially ends a 43-day government shutdown, allowing federal operations to resume until January 30, 2026 [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the backlog of economic data, which will quickly test the current monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Key missing reports: Federal agencies will begin releasing two months of lagging data, including September and October Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and October Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release NFP data within 2-5 business days after resuming operations, potentially as early as this weekend or more likely early next week [2] - The rapid release of economic data will challenge the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with market attention on whether the data indicates a weak labor market (supporting a rate cut in December) or persistent inflation (limiting easing) [2] Group 3 - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant drop from 92% a month ago [3] Group 4 - The resolution of the government shutdown and the upcoming lagging economic data have led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [4] - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is maintaining a consolidation around 99.00, with a technical bias still leaning towards bullish due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy remaining unchanged and future policy uncertainty [5] Group 5 - The USDX is expected to continue consolidating before the upcoming data provides clearer direction, with the 99.00-100.00 range being a critical testing zone for potential breakouts [8] Group 6 - Despite a slight weakening of the dollar, the USD/JPY pair has seen a small increase, indicating that the pair is correcting from last week's temporary strength due to risk aversion [9] - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end, the main drivers for yen demand are diminishing, pushing USD/JPY back into bullish momentum [9] Group 7 - Gold prices have continued to rise this week, driven by uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, a weaker dollar, and the diminishing risk of a government shutdown [12] - As of now, gold prices have increased by over 5% this week, with investors reallocating to alternative safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, anticipating that the upcoming data flood may challenge the Federal Reserve's policy stance [12] Group 8 - Technically, gold has continued to rise after breaking above $4,200, with recent resistance in the $4,180-$4,200 range, indicating a potential breakout [15] - If gold prices maintain a solid breakout above $4,200, it could signal a bullish opportunity, while a pullback near resistance may present a buying opportunity, with recent support around $4,135 [15] Group 9 - The market is expected to remain highly volatile on Thursday, with investors repricing in the context of the U.S. government reopening while awaiting the release of lagging economic data [16] - The dollar is anticipated to maintain a range-bound pattern, with resistance at 100 and support at 99, sustaining a short-term consolidation phase [16] - Gold remains bullish in the current market environment, but caution is advised as prices approach the critical $4,200 level; a solid breakout could lead to further upward movement, while resistance may result in short-term consolidation or pullback [16]