印度不战而胜，特朗普要下降关税，普京发现不对，拱手献上核技术

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics of global power balance due to changes in U.S.-India trade relations, particularly in the context of tariffs and oil imports from Russia [1][3][21]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - Trump announced a potential reduction in tariffs on Indian goods, citing India's significant reduction in Russian oil purchases as a key factor [3][5]. - Previously, the U.S. imposed punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, severely impacting India's textile, seafood, and jewelry industries [3][5][7]. - The rapid reversal of the situation saw India not retaliating strongly against the U.S. tariffs, leading to a perceived "victory" in the trade conflict [5][21]. Group 2: Impact of Russian Oil Imports - India had been importing approximately 2 million barrels of Russian oil daily, which constituted about 35% of its total oil imports before the sanctions [11][15]. - Following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, Indian refiners began to drastically cut their imports of Russian oil, with daily imports dropping to an estimated 119,000 barrels [13][15]. - The reduction in Russian oil imports is expected to significantly impact Russia's fiscal situation, as India was a crucial market for its oil exports [15][21]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. tariffs are viewed as a strategic tool to achieve geopolitical goals, aiming to cut off funding to Russia amid the ongoing conflict [13][15]. - India's response to U.S. pressure has been critical, with officials highlighting perceived double standards in U.S. and European policies regarding oil imports [15][19]. - Despite the shift towards the U.S., Russia is attempting to maintain its relationship with India by offering nuclear technology transfers, indicating a complex balancing act in India's foreign policy [15][21]. Group 4: Future Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India aim to finalize an initial agreement by fall 2025, with five rounds of discussions already completed [17][19]. - Key obstacles remain, particularly India's reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets, which are seen as critical to protecting local farmers [19]. - The disparity in tariff rates between India and Pakistan has heightened India's concerns regarding its trade position with the U.S. [19].