Vatee外汇：经济放缓预期支撑金价，黄金升至三周高点

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown interesting movements, initially retreating slightly before stabilizing and reaching a three-week high, approaching the level of $4,213 per ounce, closely linked to the situation in the United States [2] Fundamental Analysis - The impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the economy is becoming evident, with economists estimating that a prolonged shutdown could reduce quarterly GDP growth by 1.5% to 2% and lead to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3] - Data from RevelioLabs indicates a reduction of 22,200 government employee positions in October, while statistics from the Chicago Fed show a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, signaling a softening labor market [3] - These economic indicators have strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts, with traders currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, putting continued pressure on the dollar and supporting gold as a non-yielding asset [3] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have stabilized above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with the $4,200 mark providing effective support, and both daily and 4-hour technical indicators showing bullish patterns [6] - If the current momentum is maintained, gold prices could advance towards the $4,250-$4,255 range, with subsequent targets potentially reaching $4,285 and $4,300 [6] - In the event of a short-term pullback, the $4,100-$4,095 area is expected to form strong support, with a break below this range potentially triggering technical selling, targeting $4,075 or even $4,025; if the psychological level of $4,000 is breached, the short-term trend may turn bearish [6] - The reopening of the U.S. government has improved market sentiment, which may suppress safe-haven buying of gold, although the fundamental support from weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations seems to prevail [6] - Recent comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicate that real-time indicators show the labor market is in a "delicate balance" with no signs of escalating price pressures, reinforcing market confidence in a dovish path for the Federal Reserve [6]