IC外汇平台：美国CPI延迟发布制约欧元区间波动，欧元涨势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of U.S. CPI data has weakened the dollar and created uncertainty in the market, allowing the euro to maintain its structural strength and range-bound movement against the dollar [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently in a narrow range, with clear resistance at 1.16059 and support at 1.15627, reflecting indecision among traders as they await the delayed CPI data [3][14]. - The postponement of the CPI data has removed a crucial directional guide for the dollar, leading to a weakening sentiment towards the dollar while the euro has managed to hold onto recent gains [3][5]. Impact of CPI Delay - The delay in U.S. CPI data is a key factor affecting the euro to dollar exchange rate, as uncertainty leads to a reduction in dollar long positions, providing natural support for the euro [5]. - The forex market is currently in a "neutral mode," with traders managing expectations in the absence of new information, which tends to impact the dollar more than the euro [6]. Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar pair is in a consolidation phase, with a potential breakout expected after the CPI data is released, rather than before [7]. - The current technical outlook suggests that a breakout above 1.16059 could lead to targets at 1.16350 and 1.16688, while a drop below 1.15627 could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.15400 or lower [16][18]. Fundamental Drivers - The euro's resilience is attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including a narrowing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which diminishes the dollar's yield advantage [8][10]. - Improvements in European market sentiment, service activity, and industrial demand are providing support for the euro, with stability becoming an advantage rather than a weakness [9]. - The reduction of risk premiums related to energy concerns, bond vulnerabilities, and geopolitical issues has made the euro a safer choice when the dollar is under pressure [10]. Overall Outlook - The current macro environment allows the euro to maintain stability without needing to exhibit strong performance, as this stability is sufficient to support an upward trend when the dollar is weak [11].