市场风险偏好好转 沪铜重心上移【11月13日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, closing up by 0.95%, driven by improved market risk appetite and a decrease in domestic copper social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The easing of the U.S. federal government shutdown crisis has led to improved expectations for dollar liquidity, resulting in a noticeable warming of market risk appetite [1] - The hawkish stance of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Bostic, who announced his retirement in February, has shifted expectations towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper mining sector remains tight, with ongoing attention to its impact on the smelting sector [1] - Recent downstream demand for copper has been relatively stable, and domestic refined copper social inventory has not continued to accumulate [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that due to the end of the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts, the macroeconomic outlook has turned positive, suggesting that copper prices will maintain high-level fluctuations without significant downward pressure in the short term [1] - The fundamental aspect to monitor is whether the impact from Indonesian mines can lead to a reduction in non-U.S. refined copper inventory [1]