欧洲再无“造反”可能？武契奇断言，最多一年，“北溪”就将易主

Group 1 - The Nord Stream pipeline system was designed to transport natural gas directly from Russia to Germany, with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year, bypassing geopolitical disruptions [1] - After the pipeline was damaged in September 2022, the European energy market became volatile, leading countries like Germany to turn to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), resulting in import costs soaring by over 200% [1] - The U.S. expanded its market share, increasing LNG exports from 70 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 140 billion cubic meters by 2025, capturing nearly half of the European market [1] Group 2 - Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić predicts that Germany urgently needs cheap Russian gas to support industrial competitiveness, and if the undamaged branch of Nord Stream 2, with a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters, is restored, it could significantly alleviate Europe's energy pressure [3] - Vučić asserts that the pipeline will not be controlled by Russia but will likely be auctioned off to American investors, with Stephen Lynch already applying for permission to bid on the pipeline during Swiss bankruptcy proceedings [3] - Lynch values the pipeline at $11 billion but plans to acquire it at a low price, viewing it as leverage in U.S.-Ukraine conflict negotiations while controlling EU energy supply dynamics [3] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the Nord Stream pipeline, made of high-strength steel and precision-laid underwater, has a 30% higher pressure resistance compared to traditional land pipelines, but repairs post-damage will cost around $2 billion [5] - The predicted change in ownership will introduce an American management model, updating to a digital monitoring system that tracks gas flow in real-time, improving operational efficiency by 15% [5] - This update reflects a shift towards privatized operations, separating ownership from supply, aligning with EU gas directives to avoid Russian control [5] Group 4 - Russian officials have denied any intention to sell the pipeline, but economic pressures may lead to tacit approval of the transaction in exchange for sanctions relief [7] - Reports indicate secret negotiations between Russia and the U.S. to restore Nord Stream 2, with Lynch promoting the idea that American ownership could ensure Western oversight and maintain affordable Russian gas flow to Europe [7] - This dual objective reveals U.S. intentions to appear supportive of Europe while securing energy dominance [7] Group 5 - There are significant internal divisions within the EU regarding the restart of Nord Stream, with the German industrial sector eager for cheap gas, while political concerns about increased dependency persist [9] - A report from the Atlantic Council in July 2025 suggests that American ownership would more easily pass EU supply security tests compared to Russian gas during energy crises [9] - If ownership changes, Europe would need to purchase gas through American traders, increasing intermediary costs by 15% [9] Group 6 - The choice of high-priced American gas has led to a 5% decline in industrial output in Europe, with some companies relocating to Asia, aligning with U.S. strategies to promote LNG [11] - Russia is pivoting towards Eastern exports, with China benefiting from increased supply through the East Route pipeline, which is expected to rise from 15 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 38 billion cubic meters by 2025 [11] - The West Route project negotiations are accelerating, with an expected production of 30 billion cubic meters by 2026, emphasizing cost reductions through land-based high-pressure transmission [11] Group 7 - Negotiations regarding the pipeline's future continue, with Lynch advocating for the acquisition while German legal reforms prevent Russian takeover but not American involvement [13] - The execution of EU gas directives promoting ownership separation is pushing towards a change in ownership, with indications that Russia is preparing for repair work [13] - Vučić's timeline prediction points to late 2025 for potential ownership change, which could end the era of cheap Russian gas and place pricing mechanisms under U.S. control [13]