房价估值中枢在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The valuation center of housing prices is undergoing a reconstruction phase, requiring investors to adopt a multidimensional analysis framework that includes "growth expectations + supply-demand dynamics + interest rate environment + financial risks" instead of relying on single indicators [1]. Group 1: Traditional Valuation Indicators - Traditional indicators like price-to-income ratio and rental yield are structurally ineffective in the current cycle, with significant discrepancies in cross-national comparisons due to differences in measurement methods and income statistics [2]. - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the price-to-income ratios are significantly higher than those in New York and Berlin, indicating a need for caution in using these metrics for valuation [2]. Group 2: Rental Yield and Holding Costs - While rental yield reflects income potential, it does not account for holding costs; however, its importance has increased in the current low-expectation environment [4]. - In Hong Kong, a drop in mortgage rates to below 3.5% alongside a stable rental yield of around 3.6% has led to price stabilization, supporting the logic of interest rate pricing [4]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Growth Expectations - Key growth expectations that previously supported valuations—urbanization, population growth, and income expectations—have undergone structural changes since 2021, leading to a need for revaluation based on "low growth expectations" [6]. - Urbanization growth has slowed to 66.16%, and total population decline has weakened demand support, while the correlation between M2 money supply and housing prices has decreased [6]. Group 4: Conditions for Price Recovery - The recovery of the housing price valuation center is constrained by three factors: supply-demand dynamics, interest rate environment, and financial risks [7]. - A downward spiral in supply-demand dynamics is evident, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales from January to September 2025 and a 2.7% drop in new home prices across 70 cities [8]. Group 5: Key Indicators for Investors - Investors are advised to monitor three categories of indicators: - Demand-side indicators such as a three-month consecutive year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions in core cities and positive growth in medium to long-term loans [10]. - Interest rate indicators including the widening gap between mortgage rates and overall loan rates, and rental yields approaching first-home mortgage rates [10]. - Financial indicators like the stabilization and recovery of commercial banks' net interest margins and a slowdown in the growth rate of real estate non-performing loans [10].