美债波动率指数跳升至一个月高点 政府停摆结束并未终止不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury prices remain stable, but volatility indicators suggest potential significant fluctuations in the coming days following the longest government shutdown in history [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains strong at 4.08% as of Thursday [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, as indicated by swap rates linked to policy meeting dates [1] Group 2: Volatility Indicators - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has risen to its highest level in a month after recently hitting a four-year low, indicating that upcoming economic data releases may prompt market reactions [1] - Investors in the $30 trillion market are awaiting the resumption of government economic reports to gain insights into the Federal Reserve's direction for interest rates in its final meeting of the year [1] Group 3: Expert Insights - Michiel Tukker, a senior European rates strategist at ING, notes that the market remains uncertain about the Federal Reserve's next steps, suggesting that any new inflation and employment data could lead to increased volatility at the front end of the yield curve [1]