关键数据即将“补发” 美债市场严阵以待

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is stabilizing, but volatility indicators suggest potential significant fluctuations in the coming days as the government resumes data releases after the longest shutdown in history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Stability and Volatility - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.08%, with significant divergence in market expectations regarding a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1]. - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has risen to a one-month high after hitting a four-year low, indicating that upcoming economic data releases may trigger market volatility [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Investor Sentiment - Investors are awaiting the resumption of government economic reports to gain insights into the Federal Reserve's final rate decision for the year, relying on private sector data during the data hiatus [1]. - The latest ADP data indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, contributing to cautious investor sentiment [1]. - Traders are positioning for a potential drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% as they anticipate that the upcoming data will confirm a weakening economic trend [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The clarity of the economic outlook and the Federal Open Market Committee's policy direction will be crucial for breaking the current narrow trading range of yields before the December rate decision [3]. - Concerns about the downside risks in the labor market are heightened due to inconsistent private sector data [3].