白银价格狂飙，什么原因？后续怎么走？

Group 1 - Precious metals are experiencing a significant price surge, with silver prices reaching a new historical high of over $54 per ounce on November 13, 2023, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver contract hitting 12,639 yuan per kilogram [1][4] - The recent rally in precious metals is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, including concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid government shutdowns and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine [3][4] - Silver has shown a remarkable performance compared to gold, with the gold-silver ratio indicating a strong market preference for silver, suggesting its upward potential [3][4] Group 2 - From September to October 2023, global precious metals saw a substantial increase, with silver prices rising by 53.16% on SHFE, 64.73% on COMEX, and 68.4% in the London Metal Exchange (LME) [4] - The surge in silver prices is driven by extreme shortages in overseas silver supply, influenced by various factors including tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and increased demand from India [4][5] - Global silver demand is projected to reach 35,500 tons in 2024, with industrial demand accounting for 61.8%, particularly from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors [5][6] Group 3 - The supply of silver is expected to remain constrained due to stable mining output over the past two decades and declining ore grades, which increase production costs [6][7] - The demand for silver is expanding, particularly in the electronics sector, with a projected increase of 4.5% in 2024, while investment demand is becoming a key driver for price increases [6][7] - Despite a potential decline in silver jewelry consumption due to economic factors, the overall market for silver jewelry and utensils is expected to remain stable, with a shift in consumer preference from gold to silver [6][7]