黄金反弹凶猛！花旗喊出2027年底6000美元，但2026年3650美元

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Citigroup predicts that gold prices could potentially reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027 under a specific bullish scenario driven by global wealth reallocation, although the base case suggests a decline to $3,650 per ounce by 2026 [1][5][7]. Group 1: Price Predictions - In a bullish scenario with a 30% probability, gold prices may hit $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, driven by significant global wealth reallocation [5][6]. - The base case scenario, which has a 50% probability, anticipates gold prices to decline to $3,650 per ounce by 2026 due to an improving U.S. economic environment [7][8]. - A bearish scenario with a 20% probability suggests that gold prices could fall to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 or 2027 if geopolitical and economic concerns ease significantly [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. market has been the primary driver of recent gold price increases, with U.S. gold ETF net inflows accounting for 60.9% of global totals in 2025 [13][17]. - The current physical gold market is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, estimated to exceed 1,000 tons annually, indicating that new buying demand far exceeds the supply from mining and recycling [17]. - The report highlights that gold currently represents only about 0.1% of global household wealth, suggesting that even a slight increase in allocation could require a substantial amount of gold, potentially leading to price surges [9]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The report indicates that the investment demand, particularly from U.S. investors, is a key factor in the recent surge in gold prices, with net investment demand running at an annualized rate exceeding $350 billion [13]. - The valuation of gold is currently considered "very expensive," with multiple indicators reaching 50-year highs, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [10][14]. - The proportion of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has risen to nearly 35%, the highest level since the mid-1990s, reflecting increased central bank interest in gold as a reserve asset [15].