又一个特朗普2.0时代的惨案！近40年最大日元多头头寸瓦解

Core Viewpoint - Investors had previously bet on a record scale that the Japanese yen would appreciate, anticipating profits from Japan's long-awaited economic recovery, while also betting on a slowdown in the U.S. economy. However, the yen has fallen to its lowest level in nine months, leading speculators to withdraw from their largest long positions in nearly 40 years. The unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy and the new Japanese government's preference for a slower pace of interest rate hikes are key reasons for this miscalculation [1]. Group 1 - The yen's depreciation is largely attributed to the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on interest rate hikes, which is a response to uncertainties stemming from U.S. tariff policies [2]. - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Kishi, has increased political pressure by opting for increased spending to boost growth while maintaining low interest rates, which is detrimental to the yen [2]. - Market expectations for future U.S. rate cuts and Japanese rate hikes have been lowered, resulting in a policy interest rate differential of over 300 basis points, posing further depreciation risks for the yen [2]. Group 2 - There is a prevailing sentiment that the dollar-yen exchange rate may rise further, with some strategists betting that the yen will fall below the 155 mark in the coming weeks [3]. - As of the end of September, data indicates that long positions in the yen have been reduced by more than half since reaching record highs in April, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [4]. - The implied volatility of three-month dollar-yen options has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, indicating low demand for hedging against yen appreciation [5]. Group 3 - The current market environment suggests that many investors are focusing on carry trades, which typically involve selling the yen [5]. - The year-end forecast for the dollar-yen exchange rate remains at 155, but the risk of it rising to 160 by the fourth quarter of 2025 has increased [6].