新能源车销量持续走高，动力电池产能吃紧？

Core Insights - The current supply of power batteries in China is tight, with high capacity utilization rates among manufacturers, leading to competition among automakers to secure battery supplies [1][2] - The increase in demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has resulted in a "battery hoarding" battle among car manufacturers, driven by optimistic market expectations and the upcoming traditional sales peak in Q4 [2][3] - The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax is influencing manufacturers to accelerate delivery schedules to improve financial performance [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The production and sales of NEVs in China from January to October reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of over 30% [2] - In October, NEV sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales for the first time, indicating a significant market shift [2] - The demand for high-nickel batteries, primarily used in high-end electric and hybrid vehicles, is currently constrained due to supply chain issues and raw material price fluctuations [4][5] Supply Chain Challenges - The storage market's explosive growth is a key factor contributing to the tight supply of power batteries, with the demand for lithium batteries in storage applications surging [5][6] - The production capacity for lithium iron phosphate batteries is sufficient overall, but many production lines are being diverted to meet storage project demands, leading to resource competition [5][6] - The third quarter of this year saw a 65% year-on-year increase in China's storage lithium battery shipments, with total shipments expected to reach 580 GWh for the year, a 67% increase [5][6] Future Outlook - The demand for storage is expected to remain strong, with global installation growth projected at 40% to 50% next year [7] - The ongoing high demand for storage is likely to continue affecting the availability of power batteries for electric vehicles, particularly those using lithium iron phosphate technology [7] - The current battery shortage is viewed as a short-term issue, with expectations of improved supply in the future [7]