Citi(US:C) Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2025-11-13 13:47Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2023 is 5.2%, and the annual target of 5% is achievable, with a similar target expected for 2024 [1] - Fiscal policy will play a leading role in 2024, maintaining a certain level of expansion, with a general public budget deficit projected at 4% of GDP and an increase in social spending [1] - The special bond quota for long-term projects is set at 1.6 trillion yuan, which is 300 billion yuan higher than in 2025, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas [1] Group 2 - The broad fiscal deficit for stabilizing the economy in 2026 is expected to reach approximately 11.8 trillion yuan, equivalent to 7.9% of GDP, an increase of 1 trillion yuan or 0.4% of GDP compared to 2025 [1] - Monetary policy is not expected to see a reduction in reserve requirement ratios or interest rates within the year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 20 basis points and a reserve requirement cut of 50 basis points in 2026 [1] - In terms of boosting consumption, structural measures will be prioritized in 2026, with a potential subsidy scale for old-for-new programs maintained at 300 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Support for "one old and one young" initiatives will be emphasized, with childcare subsidies likely remaining at 100 billion yuan and free preschool education expanding its coverage, resulting in an additional 64 billion yuan in spending [2] - Pilot programs for senior consumption vouchers have started, with potential nationwide expansion in 2026, requiring expenditures in the range of 100 billion yuan [2]