数据风暴来袭！警惕经济超预期反杀股市

Core Viewpoint - The end of the U.S. government shutdown shifts market focus to the backlog of economic data, with investors showing cautious sentiment due to concerns over rapid stock market gains driven by a few AI beneficiaries [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - There is a prevailing worry that strong economic performance could unexpectedly complicate the Federal Reserve's policy, potentially leading to tighter monetary conditions rather than the anticipated easing [1][2] - The market has significant confidence in a "Goldilocks" economic scenario, where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold, allowing for expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve while maintaining consumer spending and strong wage growth [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Current market expectations suggest a 55% probability of a rate cut in December, indicating uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's decisions [3] - Traders anticipate that the federal funds rate will decrease from the current range of 3.75%-4% to 3%-3.25% by the end of 2026, reflecting expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy in the future [4] Group 3: Corporate Investment Trends - Increased corporate investment in AI is leading to a reduction in cash available for stock buybacks, which could impact stock market dynamics [4][6] - The shift towards capital expenditures for AI data centers is consuming more cash, further limiting funds for stock repurchases [6]