美联储狂泼冷水，12月降息预期骤降！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly cautious, with market expectations for a December rate cut now at approximately 55% due to concerns over inflation and a stable labor market following two rate cuts this year [2][5][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, previously a strong advocate for rate cuts, indicated that it is "too early" to make a decision before the next policy meeting [5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed that the threshold for further rate cuts is "relatively high" unless there is clear evidence of labor market deterioration, suggesting that policy rates may need to remain unchanged for a while [5][6]. - Collins' comments highlight deepening divisions within the Fed regarding the consensus on further rate cuts, reflecting a lack of agreement among officials [5][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Collins' remarks and guidance from the White House, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have diminished significantly [6]. - Short-term interest rate futures indicate a 55% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 10, suggesting increased uncertainty regarding the rate path [7]. - Apollo's chief economist noted that 55% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) components have increased by more than 3%, complicating the Fed's ability to justify a rate cut given its inflation target of 2% [7].