【特稿】国际能源署预测明年石油日均过剩超400万桶

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a continued global oil supply surplus in the next two years due to increased production from oil-producing countries and slowing demand growth, with a projected surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026 [1] - The IEA's report indicates a significant imbalance in the global oil market, with supply growth outpacing demand growth [1] - The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook report suggests that the trend of increasing global oil and gas demand may persist until 2050 [1] Supply Dynamics - As of October, global oil production has increased by 6.2 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with contributions from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries [2] - Saudi Arabia, as the largest oil producer in OPEC, contributed an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day, while Russia's contribution was limited to 120,000 barrels per day due to sanctions and attacks on energy facilities [2] - Despite impending sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian oil exports have not yet been significantly impacted [2] Inventory Levels - Global oil inventories have risen sharply, reaching nearly 8 billion barrels as of September, the highest level since July 2021, primarily due to increased storage of oil transported by sea [2] - The trend of rising oil inventories is expected to continue [2] Forecast Discrepancies - OPEC's monthly oil market report predicts a much lower surplus of only 20,000 barrels per day by 2026, contrasting sharply with the IEA's forecast [2]