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Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is pressuring Mexico to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to significant internal opposition within Mexico, particularly from the private sector and even within the ruling party [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Impact - A report from a prominent think tank predicts that a tariff war between China and Mexico could lead to a 30% drop in Mexico's exports to China and a 25% increase in the cost of imports from China [3]. - The Mexican avocado export association expressed concerns that losing access to the Chinese market, which saw a 40% increase in exports last year, would be a significant loss [5]. - The Mexican automotive industry reported that 75% of its electronic control units are reliant on imports from China, warning that tariffs could significantly increase production costs and reduce international competitiveness [8]. Group 2: Government Response - The Mexican government has postponed the planned tariffs on China from September to December, indicating a need for careful consideration of various interests [6]. - In late September, the Mexican Finance Ministry changed its language from "implementing tariffs" to "studying tariffs," suggesting a reevaluation of its stance due to widespread opposition [8]. - The Mexican Foreign Minister emphasized that trade policies must align with the country's best interests, despite U.S. pressure for clarity on tariff positions [8][10]. Group 3: Trade Relations - The bilateral trade volume between China and Mexico reached a record high of $82 billion in the first eight months of the year, raising concerns about the potential losses from a tariff conflict [6]. - China's Ministry of Commerce warned that unilateral tariff measures by Mexico would severely damage the healthy development of bilateral trade and investment confidence [1][6]. - In October, trade between China and Mexico saw a month-on-month decline of 5%, which analysts view as an early warning sign of escalating trade tensions [8].