Can Boot Barn's 15% Unit Growth Plan Deliver Long-Term Gains?

Core Insights - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) is targeting 15% unit growth in fiscal 2026 as part of its long-term strategy to expand its market presence across the U.S. The company plans to open approximately 70 new stores this fiscal year, following the opening of 59 stores last fiscal year, maintaining a consistent double-digit growth rate for the fourth consecutive year [1][9]. Expansion and Performance - Over the last 12 months, Boot Barn has opened 64 new stores, contributing to an 18.7% revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Each new store is expected to generate around $3.2 million in annual sales and recover its investment within two years [2][9]. - By midyear, Boot Barn had already opened 30 of the planned new locations, indicating strong execution and demand across various markets [2]. Market Opportunity - The total addressable market for Boot Barn has increased to $58 billion from $40 billion. Management believes that the store count in the U.S. could reach 1,200 stores. The pipeline for fiscal 2027 appears strong, with around 20 projected openings in the first quarter, supporting the expectation of sustained double-digit growth beyond this year [3][9]. Competitive Landscape - Boot Barn faces competition from companies like Buckle, Inc. and Urban Outfitters, Inc. Buckle opened two new stores and plans to open four more by the end of the year, while Urban Outfitters opened 14 new stores in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and anticipates opening approximately 69 new stores for the full year [4][5]. Financial Performance - Boot Barn's shares have increased by 17.9% year-to-date, contrasting with a 17.6% decline in the industry. The company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6]. - From a valuation perspective, Boot Barn trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.5X, which is higher than the industry average of 16.24X [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 20.5% and 13.8%, respectively. The company has delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.4% on average [11].