担心“美元互换”被武器化，欧洲官员探讨为"最坏情况"做准备：自建美元储备池

Core Viewpoint - European financial stability officials are discussing the integration of non-U.S. central bank dollar reserves to reduce dependence on the U.S. financial system, particularly under the Trump administration [2][10]. Group 1: Discussion of Dollar Reserve Integration - European officials are considering a plan to consolidate dollar reserves held by central banks outside the U.S. to create an alternative to the Federal Reserve's funding support mechanisms [2]. - Concerns have been raised that these mechanisms could be weaponized by the Trump administration, with fears peaking in April when tariff threats shook the global financial system [2][9]. - Discussions are ongoing at a working level among central banks in and outside the Eurozone, although practical challenges to integrating dollar reserves exist [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - Despite holding thousands of billions in cash, non-U.S. central banks cannot match the Federal Reserve's capacity as the issuer of the world's reserve currency [4]. - Any attempt to pool reserves will face logistical and political challenges, with indications that even a hint of the Fed interrupting swap lines could create significant pressure on the global financial system [5]. - The proposed dollar reserve pool may only address localized liquidity issues and is unlikely to provide decisive support during widespread market turmoil [4]. Group 3: Alternative Measures and Precedents - European officials are looking at other measures to enhance financial resilience, including strengthening scrutiny of lending institutions and requiring them to develop plans for obtaining dollars from markets in Asia and the Middle East [7]. - The experience of other regions, such as the ASEAN and China, which established the Chiang Mai Initiative for multilateral currency swap arrangements, is being considered as a potential model [6]. Group 4: Ongoing Concerns and Future Outlook - The issue of building resilience without relying on the U.S. is consistently raised in central bank meetings, indicating a persistent concern among European officials [8]. - The potential loss of access to the Fed's swap lines is not seen as the primary concern, but discussions about finding alternatives continue among the European Central Bank and various national central banks [9][10]. - European officials are particularly worried about the implications of Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2024 and the potential selection of a new Fed chair by Trump, which could affect future financial stability [10].