美国GDP是幻觉？中国经济实力被严重低估，美GDP或许虚胖15万亿

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the real economic comparison between the US and China, questioning the authenticity of US GDP figures and suggesting that China's economic strength may be underestimated [1][3]. Economic Growth Comparison - From 2019 to 2024, US GDP increased from $21.5 trillion to $29.2 trillion, a growth of nearly 36%, equivalent to adding an economy the size of Spain each year [3]. - In contrast, China's GDP grew from $14.4 trillion to $18.94 trillion during the same period, a growth of approximately 31.5% [7]. Energy Production and Economic Support - US electricity generation only increased from 4.1 trillion kWh to 4.3 trillion kWh, a growth of less than 5%, raising questions about the sustainability of its GDP growth [5]. - China's electricity production rose from 7.1 trillion kWh to 10.1 trillion kWh, a growth of over 42%, indicating solid production support for its economic growth [7]. Automotive Industry Insights - US automobile sales declined from 17.1 million to 16 million units over five years, while China's sales remained stable and it became a global leader in the new energy vehicle sector [9][11]. - By 2024, China emerged as the world's largest automobile exporter, showcasing its manufacturing capabilities [11]. Economic Structure and GDP Calculation Methods - The article highlights the differences in GDP calculation methods: the US uses the expenditure approach, which counts all spending, while China employs the production approach, focusing on actual output [15][19]. - If China were to adopt the US's expenditure method, its GDP could exceed $44 trillion, surpassing the US by $15 trillion [19]. Inflation and Cost of Living - The article points out that the rapid GDP growth in the US is largely driven by inflation rather than real output, with significant increases in consumer prices for everyday goods [21][23]. - The structure of the US economy is shifting, with services now accounting for over 80% of GDP, raising concerns about the actual value generated [23][25]. Market Dynamics and Valuation - The US stock market, particularly AI-related stocks, is experiencing inflated valuations, exemplified by OpenAI's market cap of $13.5 trillion despite only $3.7 billion in profits [27][29]. - The interconnected investments among major tech companies create a "capital game" that inflates valuations without corresponding real demand [29]. Conclusion on Economic Strength - The article concludes that while China's GDP may be statistically lower, it is backed by real manufacturing and infrastructure, whereas the US's high GDP is more reflective of price increases and financial bubbles [31].