留心欧洲印度化！安世事件启示：退一步可能丢科技话语权！

Core Viewpoint - The forced takeover of ASML by the Netherlands is framed as a response to "technology transfer risks," but it is essentially a political maneuver aligned with the Atlantic alliance's strategy to contain China technologically [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Semiconductor Industry - The ASML incident has caused significant disruptions in the global automotive chip supply chain, prompting companies like Infineon and STMicroelectronics to accelerate production, while Japan invests heavily in domestic chip support [5]. - China's self-sufficiency in mature process chips has reached a 70% rate, with a 35% year-on-year increase in domestic automotive-grade chip shipments, indicating a growing capability to provide alternatives to European automakers [5][9]. Group 2: European Market Dynamics - Despite a 52% increase in Chinese electric vehicle exports to Europe, European automakers have seen a 42% decline in sales in China, highlighting a complex interdependence that complicates Europe's stance against China [3][11]. - The European Union's recent legislation, such as the Critical Raw Materials Act, has set the stage for more aggressive actions against companies like ASML, reflecting a broader strategy to align with U.S. policies [1][3]. Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China's response to the Netherlands' actions includes targeted measures like suspending certain high-tech export licenses, which directly impact the Netherlands without disrupting the entire market [5][9]. - Chinese companies are shifting their approach in Europe from mere market penetration to technology collaboration, as seen with CATL's commitment to share technology in Hungary, aiming to alleviate local concerns about Chinese influence [7]. Group 4: Broader Geopolitical Implications - The ASML incident serves as a litmus test for Europe's willingness to follow the U.S. in its containment strategy against China, with potential repercussions for its own industrial base [11]. - The ongoing geopolitical chess game between China and Europe is characterized by a delicate balance of interests, where Europe seeks to limit China while simultaneously relying on it, creating a precarious situation that cannot be sustained long-term [9][11].