Morgan Stanley Says It’s Time To Take Crypto Profits — Here’s What Our Data Shows

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests that it is time for investors to take profits in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, as it has entered the "fall season" of its four-year market cycle, which historically precedes a potential downturn [2][5] - CCN's analysis indicates a more complex relationship between Bitcoin prices and U.S. money supply, suggesting that the current market dynamics may not be solely liquidity-driven [4][5] Morgan Stanley Outlook - Denny Galindo from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management states that Bitcoin is currently in the "fall season" of its market cycle, a period when investors typically cash out before a potential crypto winter [2][5] - Historical patterns indicate a "three-up, one-down" rhythm in Bitcoin's price cycles, suggesting that the current rally may soon lead to consolidation or decline [3] CCN's Data Analysis - CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri highlights inconsistencies in the correlation between U.S. money supply and Bitcoin prices, noting that both fell during the 2022-2023 bear market [4][5] - The analysis shows that in the 2018-2019 downturn, Bitcoin's price dropped despite an expanding money supply, while the 2020 bull market aligned with a surge in liquidity [6] Technical Outlook - Tahiri's technical analysis indicates caution, as Bitcoin's monthly chart has shown a bearish candlestick formation and a breakdown from an ascending wedge pattern, historically signaling the end of an uptrend [7] - The completion of a five-wave advance since early 2023 suggests that the upward leg of the cycle may be complete, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [8]