Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on Marathon Petroleum Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading independent refiner and transporter of petroleum products in the U.S., with a market cap of $60.2 billion [1] Performance Summary - MPC shares have outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks, increasing nearly 30%, while the S&P 500 Index has risen 14.6% [2] - Year-to-date, MPC shares have surged 44.6%, compared to the S&P 500's 16.6% gain [2] - In contrast, MPC has outpaced the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLE) 3.1% decrease over the same period [3] Financial Results - On November 4, MPC shares fell 6.1% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.01, attributed to higher refining turnaround costs of $400 million and increased operating costs of $5.59 per barrel [4] - The company also faced renewable diesel losses of $56 million and lower-than-expected West Coast refining margins, compounded by downtime at the Galveston Bay refinery due to a June fire [4] Future Outlook - Analysts project MPC's adjusted EPS to grow 7% year-over-year to $10.39 for the current fiscal year ending in December 2025 [5] - The earnings surprise history is mixed, with MPC beating consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters [5] - Among 20 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of eight "Strong Buy" ratings, three "Moderate Buys," and nine "Holds" [5] Analyst Ratings - Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins lowered MPC's price target to $200 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [6] - The stock is currently trading above the mean price target of $197.94, with a Street-high price target of $220 suggesting an 8.9% potential upside [6]